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Prediction for CME (2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-24T14:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24775/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-27T10:03Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-04-24 20:08
 - Time at C2: 2023-04-24 14:12
 - Radial speed: 583.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 44 deg
 - Eruption location: S38W05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 580.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-04-27 10:03 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.87 hours)
Lead Time: 61.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-04-24T20:15Z
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